Fears are rapidly growing that Ethiopia could slide back into a devastating civil war in its northern Tigray region, as the federal government and regional authorities accuse each other of launching fresh military offensives. Local forces aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front have seized control of critical regional airports, and armed clashes have spilled outward into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, according to reports from Ethiopian officials and local authorities[1].
The sudden escalation shatters months of fragile calm established under the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which had officially paused a two-year conflict estimated to have claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. In response to the latest security deterioration, Ethiopian Airlines announced the immediate suspension of all commercial flights to the northern region, cutting off vital transport links as ground skirmishes intensify[1].
Airports Seized and Flight Suspensions
According to reports verified by regional media and international observers including the Agence France-Presse, Tigrayan forces moved overnight to take control of key aviation infrastructure, most notably the Alula Aba Nega Airport in the regional capital of Mekelle, alongside facilities in Aksum and Shire. Airport personnel arriving for shifts reported being turned back by guards after supervisory staff confirmed that regional forces had assumed complete control of the compounds.
The state-owned carrier Ethiopian Airlines acted swiftly to halt air traffic to the zone, isolating the highland region as security forces mobilized. Getachew Reda, an advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, asserted that Tigrayan leadership initiated an all-out assault against federal defense positions. Conversely, Tigrayan authorities maintained that their military units were acting strictly in self-defense following a series of aggressive maneuvers and drone deployments by federal troops.
A New Rebel Coalition and Widening Fronts
The latest flare-up follows weeks of intensifying political friction and the formal formation of a multi-faction opposition bloc. Over the weekend, the TPLF announced a coalition alongside six other armed and political entities across the country, establishing the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival with the stated objective of dismantling Prime Minister Abiy's administration[1].
Independent monitors note that the coalition brings together diverse insurgent movements, including the Oromo Liberation Army and various regional militias. Alan Boswell, the Horn of Africa director for the International Crisis Group, described the severity of the diplomatic breakdown to Al Jazeera[2]:
The peace agreement has completely broken down and the situation is very, very dangerous.
Alan Boswell, Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group
While some regional experts emphasize that the newly formed coalition remains largely aspirational in terms of operational coordination, ground reports confirm that kinetic fighting has already materialized along the Tigray-Amhara and Tigray-Afar borders. Data compiled by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project indicates that government drone strikes had targeted suspected TPLF command points and infrastructure in southern Tigray and around Mekelle in the weeks leading up to the ground offensive.
Regional Spillover Risks and Humanitarian Toll
The humanitarian repercussions of the renewed hostilities threaten a population already battered by years of acute deprivation, displacement, and blocked aid routes. Humanitarian workers operating in the Afar region told reporters that fighting around mountainous frontier towns like Abala and Erebti has forced fresh waves of civilians to flee their homes just as relief trucks attempt to navigate active combat zones[6].
Beyond Ethiopia's borders, international diplomats have expressed profound anxiety that a protracted conflict could draw in neighboring states, particularly Eritrea, given longstanding regional rivalries and historic alignments. Although the immediate trajectory of the offensive remains fluid and heavily contested by competing official narratives, the collapse of institutional trust points toward a prolonged cycle of instability in the Horn of Africa.
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Tigray tensions rise as Ethiopian Airlines suspends flights to three airports: Analysis →